China's steel exports forcast

Since April 25, the domestic steel market price fall, the ordinary steel price index fell more than 20 points, and part of steel products price has an decline rate over 30%. In the Chinese steel pipe market, both seamless steel pipe and welded steel pipe suffer a large price decrease. In generall, there will be three different prices in one day. The main logic behind the price decline is large profit margins stimulate the resumption of steel products production which led to the expansion conflict between steel supply and demand. When the market price goes down, steel products exporting is one way to relieve the domestic market pressure. Therefore, the market believe that the domestic market steel supply in May 2016 is getting better and better. In fact, themajority of steel prouduction enterprises and large steel products traders ahve such a feeling that the domestic steel export deliveries and new orders  volume performance is good in May. According to the Shanghai Steel Investigation Team Data, Chinese steel export is more than 9.5 million tons with a sequential growth rate in 5%.

In June 2016, the domestic steel exports may be affected. Chinese steel market in Europe and America is suffering from s severe "anti-dumping, countervailing" survey. Chinese steel exports to Europe and America are suppressed. The strong demand for steel consumption in Southeast Asia for the Chinese steel exports contributed a lot of power. Chinese steel export growth is very dependent on the Southeast Asian region. The changes in the Southease Asian market will largely affect the export quantity of  Chinese steel. June is the rainy season in Southeast Asia market, the rainy season will definitely affect the start of the construction site, which would weaken the steel consumption. In addition, the lslamic holy month of Ramadan will begin in June which will also affect the local steel consumtion. Therefore, we believe that in June Chinese steel exports will be affected the Chinese steel export in some degree, but in a limited impact strength.